Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

D. M. Smith (), R. Eade, M. B. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. J. Dunstone, J. García-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. S. Graff, S. C. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson, T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R. Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler, M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun and A. Walsh
Additional contact information
D. M. Smith: Met Office Hadley Centre
R. Eade: Met Office Hadley Centre
M. B. Andrews: Met Office Hadley Centre
H. Ayres: University of Reading
A. Clark: Met Office Hadley Centre
S. Chripko: CNRS, CERFACS
C. Deser: National Center for Atmospheric Research
N. J. Dunstone: Met Office Hadley Centre
J. García-Serrano: Universitat de Barcelona
G. Gastineau: Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
L. S. Graff: Norwegian Meteorological Institute
S. C. Hardiman: Met Office Hadley Centre
B. He: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
L. Hermanson: Met Office Hadley Centre
T. Jung: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
J. Knight: Met Office Hadley Centre
X. Levine: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
G. Magnusdottir: University of California Irvine
E. Manzini: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
D. Matei: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
M. Mori: Kyushu University
R. Msadek: CNRS, CERFACS
P. Ortega: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Y. Peings: University of California Irvine
A. A. Scaife: Met Office Hadley Centre
J. A. Screen: Exeter University
M. Seabrook: Met Office Hadley Centre
T. Semmler: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
M. Sigmond: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
J. Streffing: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
L. Sun: Colorado State University
A. Walsh: Exeter University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

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