Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s

Hyun-Su Jo, Yoo-Geun Ham (), Jong-Seong Kug, Tim Li, Jeong-Hwan Kim, Ji-Gwang Kim and Hyerim Kim
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Hyun-Su Jo: Chonnam National University
Yoo-Geun Ham: Chonnam National University
Jong-Seong Kug: Pohang University of Science and Technology
Tim Li: University of Hawaii at Manoa
Jeong-Hwan Kim: Chonnam National University
Ji-Gwang Kim: Chonnam National University
Hyerim Kim: Hanyang University, ERICA

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), which is characterized by an east-west-oriented sea surface temperature dipole pattern over the southern Indian Ocean, has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead. The role of the SIOD in the subsequent year’s ENSO is distinctive from the equatorial Indian Ocean Dipole mode in that it prolongs the ENSO period. The westward-shifted ENSO has sustained simultaneous SIOD events for longer periods since the 2000s, which leads to weak but persistent westerly anomalies over the western Pacific. This eventually results in the development of the Central Pacific El Niño in the subsequent year.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34721-8

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