Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system

Grace C. Wu (), Ranjit Deshmukh (), Anne Trainor, Anagha Uppal, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Carlos Baez, Erik Martin, Jonathan Higgins, Ana Mileva and Kudakwashe Ndhlukula
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Grace C. Wu: University of California Santa Barbara
Ranjit Deshmukh: University of California Santa Barbara
Anne Trainor: The Nature Conservancy
Anagha Uppal: University of California, Santa Barbara
A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury: University of California Santa Barbara
Carlos Baez: University of California, Santa Barbara
Erik Martin: The Nature Conservancy
Jonathan Higgins: The Nature Conservancy
Ana Mileva: Blue Marble Analytics
Kudakwashe Ndhlukula: SADC Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (SACREEE)

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45313-z

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