Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil

Caroline K. Glidden (), Alyson L. Singleton, Andrew Chamberlin, Roseli Tuan, Raquel G. S. Palasio, Roberta Lima Caldeira, Antônio Miguel V. Monteiro, Kamazima M. M. Lwiza, Ping Liu, Vivian Silva, Tejas S. Athni, Susanne H. Sokolow, Erin A. Mordecai and Giulio A. Leo
Additional contact information
Caroline K. Glidden: Institute for Human-Centered AI
Alyson L. Singleton: Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources
Andrew Chamberlin: Hopkins Marine Station
Roseli Tuan: Pasteur Institute
Raquel G. S. Palasio: Pasteur Institute
Roberta Lima Caldeira: Fiocruz Minas/Belo Horizonte
Antônio Miguel V. Monteiro: National Institute for Space Research
Kamazima M. M. Lwiza: Stony Brook
Ping Liu: Stony Brook
Vivian Silva: National Institute for Space Research
Tejas S. Athni: Harvard Medical School
Susanne H. Sokolow: Woods Institute for the Environment
Erin A. Mordecai: Institute for Human-Centered AI
Giulio A. Leo: Hopkins Marine Station

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria and Bulinus snails, thus controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we used machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of forward-transmitting Biomphalaria hosts throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how Biomphalaria habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in Biomphalaria distribution—while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies—can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48335-9

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