Global expansion of tropical cyclone precipitation footprint

Lianjie Qin, Laiyin Zhu (), Baoyin Liu, Zixuan Li, Yugang Tian, Gordon Mitchell, Shifei Shen, Wei Xu () and Jianguo Chen ()
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Lianjie Qin: Tsinghua University
Laiyin Zhu: Western Michigan University
Baoyin Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zixuan Li: Nankai University
Yugang Tian: China University of Geosciences
Gordon Mitchell: University of Leeds
Shifei Shen: Tsinghua University
Wei Xu: Beijing Normal University
Jianguo Chen: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause massive damage from inland floods and is becoming more intense under a warming climate. However, knowledge gaps still exist in changes of spatial patterns in heavy TC precipitation. Here we define a metric, DIST30, as the mean radial distance from centers of clustered heavy rainfall cells (> 30 mm/3 h) to TC center, representing the footprint of heavy TC precipitation. There is significant global increase in DIST30 at a rate of 0.34 km/year. Increases of DIST30 cover 59.87% of total TC impact areas, with growth especially strong in the Western North Pacific, Northern Atlantic, and Southern Pacific. The XGBoost machine learning model showed that monthly DIST30 variability is majorly controlled by TC maximum wind speed, location, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and total water column vapor. TC poleward migration in the Northern Hemisphere contributes substantially to the DIST30 upward trend globally.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49115-1

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