The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century

Yuting Zhang (), Christopher Jackson and Samuel Krevor
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Yuting Zhang: Exhibition Road
Christopher Jackson: Exhibition Road
Samuel Krevor: Exhibition Road

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects subsurface carbon storage at rates of 1 – 30 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050. These projections, however, overlook potential geological, geographical, and techno-economic limitations to growth. We evaluate the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage using a geographically resolved growth model that considers constraints from both geology and scale-up rate. Our results suggest a maximum global storage rate of 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050, but this is contingent on the United States contributing 60% of the total. These values contrast with projections in the Sixth Assessment Report that vastly overestimate the feasibility of deployment in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. A feasible benchmark for global CO2 storage projections, and consistent with current government technology roadmaps, suggests a global storage rate of 5-6 GtCO2 yr−1, with the United States contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr−1.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8

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