Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure

Weston Anderson (), Shraddhanand Shukla, Jim Verdin, Andrew Hoell, Christina Justice, Brian Barker, Kimberly Slinski, Nathan Lenssen, Jiale Lou, Benjamin I. Cook and Amy McNally
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Weston Anderson: University of Maryland
Shraddhanand Shukla: University of California-Santa Barbara
Jim Verdin: United States Agency for International Development
Andrew Hoell: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
Christina Justice: University of Maryland
Brian Barker: University of Maryland
Kimberly Slinski: University of Maryland
Nathan Lenssen: University of Colorado Boulder
Jiale Lou: Princeton University
Benjamin I. Cook: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Amy McNally: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skillful at lead times of up to a year ahead of harvest for 15% and 30% of harvested areas, respectively. Forecasts are most skillful in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia for maize and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America for wheat. Wheat forecasts, furthermore, remain skillful at lead times of over 18 months ahead of harvest in some locations. Our results demonstrate that the potential for preseason crop yield forecasts is greater than previously appreciated.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8

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