Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model

Yiannis Moustakis (), Tobias Nützel, Hao-Wei Wey, Wenkai Bao and Julia Pongratz
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Yiannis Moustakis: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich
Tobias Nützel: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich
Hao-Wei Wey: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wenkai Bao: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich
Julia Pongratz: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Abstract Despite the increasing relevance of temperature overshoot and the rather ambitious country pledges on Afforestation/Reforestation globally, the mitigation potential and the Earth system responses to large-scale non-idealized Afforestation/Reforestation patterns under a high overshoot scenario remain elusive. Here, we develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. We then force the Max Planck Institute’s Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08 oC, end-of-century temperature by 0.2 oC, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x

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