A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability

Feng Jiang (), Richard Seager and Mark A. Cane
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Feng Jiang: Columbia University
Richard Seager: Columbia University
Mark A. Cane: Columbia University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52731-6

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