Multicentennial cycles in continental demography synchronous with solar activity and climate stability

Kai W. Wirtz (), Nicolas Antunes, Aleksandr Diachenko, Julian Laabs, Carsten Lemmen, Gerrit Lohmann, Rowan McLaughlin, Eduardo Zorita and Detlef Gronenborn
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Kai W. Wirtz: Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon
Nicolas Antunes: Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie
Aleksandr Diachenko: Institute of Archeology of the National Academy of Sciences
Julian Laabs: Kiel University
Carsten Lemmen: Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon
Gerrit Lohmann: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Rowan McLaughlin: Maynooth University
Eduardo Zorita: Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon
Detlef Gronenborn: Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Human population dynamics and their drivers are not well understood, especially over the long term and on large scales. Here, we estimate demographic growth trajectories from 9 to 3 ka BP across the entire globe by employing summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. Our reconstruction reveals multicentennial growth cycles on all six inhabited continents, which exhibited matching dominant frequencies and phase relations. These growth oscillations were often also synchronised with multicentennial variations in solar activity. The growth cycle for Europe, reconstructed based on >91,000 radiocarbon dates, was backed by archaeology-derived settlement data and showed only a weak correlation with mean climate states, but a strong correlation with the stability of these states. We therefore suggest a link between multicentennial variations in solar activity and climate stability. This stability provided more favourable conditions for human subsistence success, and seems to have induced synchrony between regional growth cycles worldwide.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54474-w

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