Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Tat Fan Cheng, Bin Wang (), Fei Liu (), Guosen Chen and Mengqian Lu
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Tat Fan Cheng: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Bin Wang: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Fei Liu: Sun Yat-Sen University
Guosen Chen: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Mengqian Lu: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Subseasonal precipitation whiplashes, marked by sudden shifts between dry and wet extremes, can disrupt ecosystems and human well-being. Predicting these events two to six weeks in advance is crucial for disaster management. Here, we show that the propagation diversity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a key source of subseasonal predictability—will alter under anthropogenic warming. This is evidenced by a 40% increase in fast-propagating events by the late 21st century. Fast-propagating MJOs may rise in a period as early as 2028–2063, increasing the global risk of precipitation whiplashes through teleconnections. We propose a heuristic framework diagnosing that MJO’s acceleration is primarily driven by enhanced atmospheric stabilization and El Niño-like sea surface warming. The expected rise in fast-propagating MJOs could improve the predictability of subseasonal weather whiplashes, offering critical lead time for disaster preparedness. Understanding these impending shifts is essential for enhancing subseasonal prediction capabilities.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58955-4

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