Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Wen Zhang (), William K. Smith, Trevor F. Keenan, Matthew P. Dannenberg, Yang Li, Songhan Wang, John S. Kimball and David J. P. Moore ()
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Wen Zhang: University of Arizona
William K. Smith: University of Arizona
Trevor F. Keenan: UC Berkeley
Matthew P. Dannenberg: University of Iowa
Yang Li: University of Arizona
Songhan Wang: Nanjing Agricultural University
John S. Kimball: University of Montana
David J. P. Moore: University of Arizona

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w

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