Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover

Jean-François Bastin (), Nicolas Latte, Jan Bogaert, Claude A. Garcia, Fabio Berzaghi, Fernando T. Maestre, Jens-Christian Svenning, Emeline Assede, Sabas Barima, Timothée Besisa, Samuel Bouchoms, Thomas W. Crowther, Thalès Haulleville, Hugo Lame, Pauline Depoortere, Marc Dufrêne, Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke, Simon Lhoest, Gregory Mahy, Christian Messier, Danilo Mollicone, Felana Nantenaina Ramalason, Marc Peaucelle, Antoine Plumacker, Fabien Quétier, Olivia Rakotondrasoa, Kouagou Raoul Sambieni, Ben Sparrow, Yegor Tarelkin, Yannick Useni Sikuzani, Arthur Linden and Philippe Lejeune
Additional contact information
Jean-François Bastin: Université de Liège
Nicolas Latte: Université de Liège
Jan Bogaert: Université de Liège
Claude A. Garcia: BFH-HAFL
Fabio Berzaghi: World Maritime University
Fernando T. Maestre: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Jens-Christian Svenning: Aarhus University
Emeline Assede: Université de Parakou
Sabas Barima: Université Jean Lorougnon Guédé
Timothée Besisa: Université de Liège
Samuel Bouchoms: Université de Liège
Thomas W. Crowther: ETH Zurich
Thalès Haulleville: Faculty of Bioscience Engineering
Hugo Lame: Université de Liège
Pauline Depoortere: Université de Liège
Marc Dufrêne: Université de Liège
Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke: Louis Bolk Institute
Simon Lhoest: Université de Liège
Gregory Mahy: Université de Liège
Christian Messier: Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
Danilo Mollicone: UN-FAO Climate Change Office
Felana Nantenaina Ramalason: Université de Liège
Marc Peaucelle: Université de Bordeaux
Antoine Plumacker: Université de Liège
Fabien Quétier: Rewilding Europe
Olivia Rakotondrasoa: Université d’Antananarivo
Kouagou Raoul Sambieni: Université de Liège
Ben Sparrow: The University of Adelaide
Yegor Tarelkin: Université de Liège
Yannick Useni Sikuzani: Université de Lubumbashi
Arthur Linden: Université de Liège
Philippe Lejeune: Université de Liège

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth’s natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers’ responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8

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