Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway

Junting Zhong, Xiaoye Zhang (), Da Zhang, Deying Wang, Lifeng Guo, Hantang Peng, Xiaodan Huang, Zhili Wang, Yadong Lei, Yixiong Lu, Chenfei Qu, Xiliang Zhang and Changhong Miao
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Junting Zhong: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Xiaoye Zhang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Da Zhang: Henan University
Deying Wang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Lifeng Guo: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Hantang Peng: Tsinghua University
Xiaodan Huang: Tsinghua University
Zhili Wang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Yadong Lei: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Yixiong Lu: China Meteorological Administration
Chenfei Qu: Tsinghua University
Xiliang Zhang: Henan University
Changhong Miao: Henan University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Due to sizeable anthropogenic CO2 emissions, China’s transition towards carbon neutrality will reshape global CO2 emissions, offering insights into warming levels, extreme events, overshoot, tipping points, and regional climate impacts. Here we develop an interdisciplinary and multi-model framework integrating up-to-date emissions inventory and China’s net-zero pathway to construct a reality-aligned, sector-specific combined scenario (SSP2-com) for greenhouse gases and air pollutants across global-to-regional, national-to-provincial, and multi-resolution-grid scales. SSP2-com projects CO₂ peaking in concentration globally by 2062, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2072, driven by Asia-Pacific—particularly China—via energy and industrial reductions. Climate emulators show global temperatures initially track SSP2-4.5 but later diverge onto a distinct trajectory, reaching 2.01 °C by 2100 ( ~ 3.2 Watt m⁻²) and dropping below 2 °C within the first post-2100 decade, relevant to the Paris Agreement target. We further propose an evolving SSP2-com+ framework with updated trajectories to enhance timely alignment and cooperation. Our findings indicate balanced, nationally-determined decarbonization can stabilize warming near 2 °C without early unprecedented decarbonization rates or large-scale carbon removal, aligning better with current status and commitments for more plausible Earth system model inputs.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62983-5

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