How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest

Marco A. Franco (), Luciana V. Rizzo, Márcio J. Teixeira, Paulo Artaxo, Tasso Azevedo, Jos Lelieveld, Carlos A. Nobre, Christopher Pöhlker, Ulrich Pöschl, Julia Shimbo, Xiyan Xu and Luiz A. T. Machado ()
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Marco A. Franco: University of São Paulo
Luciana V. Rizzo: University of São Paulo
Márcio J. Teixeira: University of Campinas
Paulo Artaxo: University of São Paulo
Tasso Azevedo: MapBiomas
Jos Lelieveld: Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Carlos A. Nobre: University of São Paulo
Christopher Pöhlker: Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Ulrich Pöschl: Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Julia Shimbo: MapBiomas
Xiyan Xu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Luiz A. T. Machado: University of São Paulo

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The Amazon rainforest is one of Earth’s most diverse ecosystems, playing a key role in maintaining regional and global climate stability. However, recent changes in land use, vegetation, and the climate have disrupted biosphere-atmosphere interactions, leading to significant alterations in the water, energy, and carbon cycles. These disturbances have far-reaching consequences for the entire Earth system. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of deforestation and global climate change to observed shifts in key Amazonian climate parameters. We analyzed long-term atmospheric and land cover change data across 29 areas in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2020, using parametric statistical models to disentangle the effects of forest loss and alterations of temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gas mixing ratios. While the rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios is primarily driven by global emissions (>99%), deforestation has significantly increased surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation during the Amazonian dry season. Over the past 35 years, deforestation has accounted for approximately 74% of the ~ 21 mm dry season−1 decline and 16.5% of the 2°C rise in maximum surface air temperature. Understanding the interplay between global climate change and deforestation is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve this vital ecosystem.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0

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