Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes

Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei (), Rafiq Hamdi, Hamid Moradkhani, Piet Termonia and Hossein Tabari ()
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Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei: Ghent University
Rafiq Hamdi: Ghent University
Hamid Moradkhani: The University of Alabama
Piet Termonia: Ghent University
Hossein Tabari: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Future climate extremes are expected to worsen existing inequalities in human exposure, yet the specific disparities across income groups are not well understood. We investigate how future floods, heatwaves, droughts, and compound hot-dry events will impact high- and low-income countries under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that low-income countries are projected to experience more severe exposure to these events, primarily due to accelerated population growth rather than climate change. Exposure inequality between high- and low-income countries decreases as event severity increases, with the effects of population growth diminishing and the impact of climate change becoming more pronounced. While compound hot-dry events have a greater overall impact compared to single events, the inequality in exposure to these events is less pronounced. These findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies that address both demographic drivers and the spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme events to effectively manage socioeconomic risks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63385-3

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