Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability

Cen Wang, Hui Su (), Chengxing Zhai, Jianqiu Zheng, Shiwei Yu, Huisi Mo, Yanjia Wang and Linwei Jiang
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Cen Wang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Hui Su: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Chengxing Zhai: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Jianqiu Zheng: University of Science and Technology of China
Shiwei Yu: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Huisi Mo: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Yanjia Wang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Linwei Jiang: University of Science and Technology of China

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only −0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to −11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to 2011. Here, we demonstrate that the recent slowdown in September sea ice melt is closely coupled with the multi-decadal variability of the preceding summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has transitioned from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s to a positive phase. During this shift, decreased heat and moisture, along with reduced downward longwave radiation, have contributed to offsetting the long-term decline, leading to a slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a primary role in driving the interdecadal variability of the NAO and Arctic sea ice by modulating wave-mean flow interactions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63520-0

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