Intensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise

Caoyi Dong, Zhongshi Zhang (), Noel Keenlyside, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Odd Helge Otterå, Antonio Bonaduce, Jiping Xie, Roshin P. Raj, Yong Liu, Bo Liu and Mingna Wu
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Caoyi Dong: China University of Geoscience
Zhongshi Zhang: Peking University
Noel Keenlyside: University of Bergen
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Odd Helge Otterå: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Antonio Bonaduce: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Jiping Xie: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Roshin P. Raj: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Yong Liu: China University of Geoscience
Bo Liu: Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Information Technology
Mingna Wu: China University of Geoscience

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Today, the global mean sea level (GMSL) stands ~ 20 cm higher than at the beginning of the last century, and the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating in recent decades. Even a slight, globally uniform sea-level rise can notably impact atmospheric and oceanic circulations at climatic and potentially synoptic scales. However, the extent to which sea-level rise will influence extreme weather remains largely unknown. Here, we focus on East Asia and conduct climate model experiments to investigate the effects of GMSL rise on winter cold extremes. Our experiments demonstrate that GMSL rise promotes stronger and more frequent extreme cold events, and this influence is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming century. This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events over Eurasia. Our study presents evidence that GMSL rise can modify synoptic systems and intensify extreme events, suggesting that both coastal and inland countries are exposed to threats arising from GMSL rise.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63727-1

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