Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Malte F. Stuecker (), Sen Zhao, Axel Timmermann (), Rohit Ghosh, Tido Semmler, Sun-Seon Lee, Ja-Yeon Moon, Fei-Fei Jin and Thomas Jung
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Malte F. Stuecker: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Sen Zhao: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Rohit Ghosh: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Tido Semmler: Met Éireann
Sun-Seon Lee: Institute for Basic Science
Ja-Yeon Moon: Institute for Basic Science
Fei-Fei Jin: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Thomas Jung: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64619-0

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