Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems

Siyi Kan, Jing Meng (), U. Martin Persson, Bin Chen, Samuel A. Levy, Elise Mazur, Leah Samberg, Guoqian Chen, Heran Zheng and Thomas Kastner
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Siyi Kan: University College London, The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction
Jing Meng: University College London, The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction
U. Martin Persson: Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Space, Earth & Environment, Physical Resource Theory
Bin Chen: Fudan University, Fudan Tyndall Center, Department of Environmental Science & Engineering
Samuel A. Levy: Rainforest Alliance
Elise Mazur: World Resources Institute, Land & Carbon Lab
Leah Samberg: Rainforest Alliance
Guoqian Chen: Peking University, Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, College of Engineering
Heran Zheng: University College London, The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction
Thomas Kastner: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBIK-F)

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Ecologically important non-forest ecosystems, including grasslands, shrublands and wetlands, face substantial threats from agricultural expansion, yet their conversion dynamics remain poorly understood. This study identifies global hotspots of land conversion from non-forest (and forest) ecosystems to cultivated lands from 2000 to 2020, including conversion within Protected Areas and its impacts for biodiversity conservation. Using three state-of-the-art land cover datasets (GlobeLand30, GLCLUC and GLC_FCS30D), we find extensive and increasing non-forest conversion, often comparable to or exceeding forest conversion. Protected non-forest ecosystems cover substantially smaller area than protected forests while experiencing disproportionately high conversion rates. Non-forest and forest conversion together affected habitats of over 5,000 threatened species, over half of which depend critically on non-forest ecosystems. Our study provides important insights for improved land cover data development, while offering companies and policymakers science-based evidence to design sustainable land-use policies and integrated policy frameworks that avoid trade-offs and support broad sustainability goals.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65769-x

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