Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition

A. T. D. Perera (), Kavan Javanroodi, Dasaraden Mauree, Vahid M. Nik, Pietro Florio, Tianzhen Hong and Deliang Chen
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A. T. D. Perera: Princeton University
Kavan Javanroodi: Lund University
Dasaraden Mauree: Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Vahid M. Nik: Lund University
Pietro Florio: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Tianzhen Hong: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Deliang Chen: University of Gothenburg

Nature Energy, 2023, vol. 8, issue 4, 397-412

Abstract: Abstract Dense urban morphologies further amplify extreme climate events due to the urban heat island phenomenon, rendering cities more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Here we develop a modelling framework using multi-scale climate and energy system models to assess the compound impact of future climate variations and urban densification on renewable energy integration for 18 European cities. We observe a marked change in wind speed and temperature due to the aforementioned compound impact, resulting in a notable increase in both peak and annual energy demand. Therefore, an additional cost of 20‒60% will be needed during the energy transition (without technology innovation in building) to guarantee climate resilience. Failure to consider extreme climate events will lower power supply reliability by up to 30%. Energy infrastructure in dense urban areas of southern Europe is more vulnerable to the compound impact, necessitating flexibility improvements at the design phase when improving renewable penetration levels.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01232-9

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