Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines

Julian Stürmer, Anton Plietzsch, Thomas Vogt, Frank Hellmann (), Jürgen Kurths, Christian Otto (), Katja Frieler and Mehrnaz Anvari ()
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Julian Stürmer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Anton Plietzsch: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thomas Vogt: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Frank Hellmann: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jürgen Kurths: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Christian Otto: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Katja Frieler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Mehrnaz Anvari: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Energy, 2024, vol. 9, issue 5, 526-535

Abstract: Abstract The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01434-1

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