The critical role of second-order normative beliefs in predicting energy conservation

Jon M. Jachimowicz (), Oliver Hauser, Julia D. O’Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
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Jon M. Jachimowicz: Columbia Business School
Julia D. O’Brien: Duke University
Erin Sherman: Ideas42
Adam D. Galinsky: Columbia Business School

Nature Human Behaviour, 2018, vol. 2, issue 10, 757-764

Abstract: Abstract Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations1–6. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal beliefs7,8. We explored the role that second-order normative beliefs—the belief that community members think that saving energy helps the environment—play in curbing energy use. We first analysed a data set of 211 independent, randomized controlled trials conducted in 27 US states by Opower, a company that uses comparative information about energy consumption to reduce household energy usage (pooled N = 16,198,595). Building off the finding that the energy savings varied between 0.81% and 2.55% across states, we matched this energy use data with a survey that we conducted of over 2,000 individuals in those same states on their first-order personal and second-order normative beliefs. We found that second-order normative beliefs predicted energy savings but first-order personal beliefs did not. A subsequent pre-registered experiment provides causal evidence for the role of second-order normative beliefs in predicting energy conservation above first-order personal beliefs. Our results suggest that second-order normative beliefs play a critical role in promoting energy conservation and have important implications for policymakers concerned with curbing the detrimental consequences of climate change.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-018-0434-0

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