Short- and medium-term impacts of strict anti-contagion policies on non-COVID-19 mortality in China

Jinlei Qi, Dandan Zhang, Xiang Zhang, Tanakao Takana, Yuhang Pan, Peng Yin, Jiangmei Liu, Shuocen Liu, George F. Gao (), Guojun He and Maigeng Zhou ()
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Jinlei Qi: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Dandan Zhang: Peking University
Xiang Zhang: Peking University
Tanakao Takana: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Yuhang Pan: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Peng Yin: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jiangmei Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Shuocen Liu: Peking University
George F. Gao: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Maigeng Zhou: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Nature Human Behaviour, 2022, vol. 6, issue 1, 55-63

Abstract: Abstract The effects of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) public health policies on non-COVID-19-related mortality are unclear. Here, using death registries based on 300 million Chinese people and a difference-in-differences design, we find that China’s strict anti-contagion policies during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced non-COVID-19 mortality outside Wuhan (by 4.6%). The health benefits persisted and became even greater after the measures were loosened: mortality was reduced by 12.5% in the medium term. Significant changes in people’s behaviours (for example, wearing masks and practising social distancing) and reductions in air pollution and traffic accidents could have driven these results. We estimate that 54,000 lives could have been saved from non-COVID-19 causes during the 50 days of strict policies and 293,000 in the subsequent 115 days. The results suggest that virus countermeasures not only effectively controlled COVID-19 in China but also brought about unintended and substantial public health benefits.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01189-3

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