Causal inference on human behaviour

Drew H. Bailey (), Alexander J. Jung, Adriene M. Beltz, Markus I. Eronen, Christian Gische, Ellen L. Hamaker, Konrad P. Kording, Catherine Lebel, Martin A. Lindquist, Julia Moeller, Adeel Razi, Julia M. Rohrer, Baobao Zhang and Kou Murayama
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Drew H. Bailey: University of California, Irvine
Alexander J. Jung: University of Tübingen
Adriene M. Beltz: University of Michigan
Markus I. Eronen: University of Groningen
Christian Gische: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Ellen L. Hamaker: Utrecht University
Konrad P. Kording: University of Pennsylvania
Catherine Lebel: Alberta Children’s Hospital Research Institute
Martin A. Lindquist: Johns Hopkins University
Julia Moeller: Leipzig University
Adeel Razi: Monash University
Julia M. Rohrer: Leipzig University
Baobao Zhang: Syracuse University
Kou Murayama: University of Tübingen

Nature Human Behaviour, 2024, vol. 8, issue 8, 1448-1459

Abstract: Abstract Making causal inferences regarding human behaviour is difficult given the complex interplay between countless contributors to behaviour, including factors in the external world and our internal states. We provide a non-technical conceptual overview of challenges and opportunities for causal inference on human behaviour. The challenges include our ambiguous causal language and thinking, statistical under- or over-control, effect heterogeneity, interference, timescales of effects and complex treatments. We explain how methods optimized for addressing one of these challenges frequently exacerbate other problems. We thus argue that clearly specified research questions are key to improving causal inference from data. We suggest a triangulation approach that compares causal estimates from (quasi-)experimental research with causal estimates generated from observational data and theoretical assumptions. This approach allows a systematic investigation of theoretical and methodological factors that might lead estimates to converge or diverge across studies.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-01939-z

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