Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change

Johann D. Bell (), Inna Senina, Timothy Adams, Olivier Aumont, Beatriz Calmettes, Sangaalofa Clark, Morgane Dessert, Marion Gehlen, Thomas Gorgues, John Hampton, Quentin Hanich, Harriet Harden-Davies, Steven R. Hare, Glen Holmes, Patrick Lehodey, Matthieu Lengaigne, William Mansfield, Christophe Menkes, Simon Nicol, Yoshitaka Ota, Coral Pasisi, Graham Pilling, Chis Reid, Espen Ronneberg, Alex Sen Gupta, Katherine L. Seto, Neville Smith, Sue Taei, Martin Tsamenyi and Peter Williams
Additional contact information
Johann D. Bell: Center for Oceans, Conservation International
Inna Senina: Collecte Localisation Satellite
Timothy Adams: University of Wollongong
Olivier Aumont: LOCEAN-IPSL, IRD/Sorbonne Universités/CNRS/MNHN
Beatriz Calmettes: Collecte Localisation Satellite
Sangaalofa Clark: Parties to the Nauru Agreement Office
Morgane Dessert: Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM
Marion Gehlen: LSCE-IPSL, CEA/CNRS/ Université Paris-Saclay
Thomas Gorgues: Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM
John Hampton: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Quentin Hanich: University of Wollongong
Harriet Harden-Davies: University of Wollongong
Steven R. Hare: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Glen Holmes: The Pew Charitable Trusts
Patrick Lehodey: Collecte Localisation Satellite
Matthieu Lengaigne: LOCEAN-IPSL, IRD/Sorbonne Universités/CNRS/MNHN
William Mansfield: Paekakariki
Christophe Menkes: ENTROPIE, IRD/Université de la Réunion/Université de Nouvelle-Calédonie/CNRS, Ifremer
Simon Nicol: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Yoshitaka Ota: University of Washington
Coral Pasisi: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Graham Pilling: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Chis Reid: Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency
Espen Ronneberg: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Alex Sen Gupta: University of NSW
Katherine L. Seto: University of Wollongong
Neville Smith: The Pacific Community (SPC)
Sue Taei: Center for Oceans, Conservation International
Martin Tsamenyi: University of Wollongong
Peter Williams: The Pacific Community (SPC)

Nature Sustainability, 2021, vol. 4, issue 10, 900-910

Abstract: Abstract Climate-driven redistribution of tuna threatens to disrupt the economies of Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and sustainable management of the world’s largest tuna fishery. Here we show that by 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of ten Pacific SIDS could decline by an average of 13% (range = −5% to −20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas. The potential implications for Pacific Island economies in 2050 include an average decline in purse-seine catch of 20% (range = −10% to −30%), an average annual loss in regional tuna-fishing access fees of US$90 million (range = −US$40 million to –US$140 million) and reductions in government revenue of up to 13% (range = −8% to −17%) for individual Pacific SIDS. Redistribution of tuna under a lower-emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) is projected to reduce the purse-seine catch from the waters of Pacific SIDS by an average of only 3% (range = −12% to +9%), indicating that even greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the Paris Agreement, would provide a pathway to sustainability for tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies. An additional pathway involves Pacific SIDS negotiating within the regional fisheries management organization to maintain the present-day benefits they receive from tuna, regardless of the effects of climate change on the distribution of the fish.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00745-z

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