Anticipating drought-related food security changes

P. Krishna Krishnamurthy R (), Joshua B. Fisher, Richard J. Choularton and Peter M. Kareiva
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P. Krishna Krishnamurthy R: UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability
Joshua B. Fisher: Chapman University
Richard J. Choularton: Tetra Tech ARD
Peter M. Kareiva: UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability

Nature Sustainability, 2022, vol. 5, issue 11, 956-964

Abstract: Abstract Food insecurity early warning can provide time to mitigate unfolding crises; however, drought remains a large source of uncertainty. The challenge is to filter unclear or conflicting signals from various climatic and socio-economic variables and link them to food security outcomes. Integrating lag-1 autocorrelation diagnostics into remotely sensed observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and food prices, we found dramatic improvement in anticipating the timing and intensity of food crises, except in conflict settings. We analysed drought-induced food crises globally in the SMAP record (since 2015; approximately five per year). The change in soil moisture autocorrelation, which we term the Soil Moisture Auto-Regressive Threshold (SMART), signalled an accurate food security transition for all cases studied here (P

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00962-0

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