Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Timothy M. Lenton (), Chi Xu (), Jesse F. Abrams, Ashish Ghadiali, Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Caroline Zimm, Kristie L. Ebi, Robert R. Dunn, Jens-Christian Svenning and Marten Scheffer
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Timothy M. Lenton: University of Exeter
Chi Xu: Nanjing University
Jesse F. Abrams: University of Exeter
Ashish Ghadiali: University of Exeter
Sina Loriani: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Boris Sakschewski: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Caroline Zimm: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Kristie L. Ebi: University of Washington
Robert R. Dunn: North Carolina State University
Jens-Christian Svenning: Aarhus University
Marten Scheffer: Wageningen University

Nature Sustainability, 2023, vol. 6, issue 10, 1237-1247

Abstract: Abstract The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6

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