Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts

Celine E. J. Bijsterveldt (), Peter M. J. Herman, Bregje K. Wesenbeeck, Sri Ramadhani, Tom S. Heuts, Corinne Starrenburg, Silke A. J. Tas, Annisa Triyanti, Muhammad Helmi, Femke H. Tonneijck and Tjeerd J. Bouma
Additional contact information
Celine E. J. Bijsterveldt: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Peter M. J. Herman: Unit for Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares
Bregje K. Wesenbeeck: Unit for Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares
Sri Ramadhani: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Tom S. Heuts: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Corinne Starrenburg: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Silke A. J. Tas: Delft University of Technology
Annisa Triyanti: Utrecht University
Muhammad Helmi: Universitas Diponegoro
Femke H. Tonneijck: Wetlands International
Tjeerd J. Bouma: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research

Nature Sustainability, 2023, vol. 6, issue 12, 1565-1577

Abstract: Abstract Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

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