Towards circular plastics within planetary boundaries

Marvin Bachmann, Christian Zibunas, Jan Hartmann, Victor Tulus, Sangwon Suh, Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez and André Bardow ()
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Marvin Bachmann: RWTH Aachen University
Christian Zibunas: RWTH Aachen University
Jan Hartmann: RWTH Aachen University
Victor Tulus: ETH Zürich
Sangwon Suh: University of California
Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez: ETH Zürich
André Bardow: ETH Zürich

Nature Sustainability, 2023, vol. 6, issue 5, 599-610

Abstract: Abstract The rapid growth of plastics production exacerbated the triple planetary crisis of habitat loss, plastic pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Circular strategies have been proposed for plastics to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. However, the implications of such circular strategies on absolute sustainability have not been examined on a planetary scale. This study links a bottom-up model covering both the production and end-of-life treatment of 90% of global plastics to the planetary boundaries framework. Here we show that even a circular, climate-optimal plastics industry combining current recycling technologies with biomass utilization transgresses sustainability thresholds by up to four times. However, improving recycling technologies and recycling rates up to at least 75% in combination with biomass and CO2 utilization in plastics production can lead to a scenario in which plastics comply with their assigned safe operating space in 2030. Although being the key to sustainability and in improving the unquantified effect of novel entities on the biosphere, even enhanced recycling cannot cope with the growth in plastics demand predicted until 2050. Therefore, achieving absolute sustainability of plastics requires a fundamental change in our methods of both producing and using plastics.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-01054-9

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