Integrated assessment of river development on downstream marine fisheries and ecosystems

Éva Plagányi (), Rob Kenyon, Laura Blamey, Julie Robins, Michele Burford, Richard Pillans, Trevor Hutton, Justin Hughes, Shaun Kim, Roy Aijun Deng, Toni Cannard, Annie Jarrett, Adrianne Laird, Emma Lawrence, Margaret Miller and Chris Moeseneder
Additional contact information
Éva Plagányi: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Rob Kenyon: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Laura Blamey: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Julie Robins: Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries
Michele Burford: Griffith University
Richard Pillans: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Trevor Hutton: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Justin Hughes: CSIRO
Shaun Kim: CSIRO
Roy Aijun Deng: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Toni Cannard: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Annie Jarrett: NPF Industry Pty Ltd
Adrianne Laird: NPF Industry Pty Ltd
Emma Lawrence: CSIRO
Margaret Miller: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Chris Moeseneder: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 1, 31-44

Abstract: Abstract Demands on freshwater for human use are increasing globally, but water resource development (WRD) has substantial downstream impacts on fisheries and ecosystems. Our study evaluates trade-offs between WRDs and downstream ecosystem functioning considering alternative dam and water extraction options, diverse eco-hydrological responses and catchment-to-coast connectivity. We used a data-driven ensemble modelling approach to quantify the impacts of alternative WRDs. WRD impacts varied from weakly positive to severely negative depending on species, scenario and cross-catchment synergies. Impacts on fishery catches and the broader ecosystem (including mangroves) increased with catchment developments and volume of water removed, or if flow reduced below a threshold level. We found complex, linked-catchment dependence of banana prawns on flow and floods. Economic risks for this important fishery more than doubled under some scenarios. Sawfish emerged as the most sensitive across a range of WRD scenarios. Our findings highlight the need to consider marine ecosystems and fisheries to inform sustainable management of the world’s remaining free-flowing rivers.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01238-x

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