Enabling conservation theories of change

Christina A. Buelow (), Rod M. Connolly, Jillian C. Dunic, Laura Griffiths, Briana Holgate, Shing Yip Lee, Brendan G. Mackey, Paul S. Maxwell, Ryan M. Pearson, Anusha Rajkaran, Michael Sievers, Ana I. Sousa, Vivitskaia J. D. Tulloch, Mischa P. Turschwell, Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas and Christopher J. Brown
Additional contact information
Christina A. Buelow: Griffith University
Rod M. Connolly: Griffith University
Jillian C. Dunic: Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Laura Griffiths: Griffith University
Briana Holgate: Griffith University
Shing Yip Lee: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Brendan G. Mackey: Griffith University
Paul S. Maxwell: Alluvium Consulting Australia
Ryan M. Pearson: Griffith University
Anusha Rajkaran: University of the Western Cape
Michael Sievers: Griffith University
Ana I. Sousa: University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago
Vivitskaia J. D. Tulloch: Griffith University
Mischa P. Turschwell: Griffith University
Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas: Griffith University
Christopher J. Brown: Griffith University

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 1, 73-81

Abstract: Abstract Global theories of change (ToCs) can provide broad, overarching guidance for conservation and sustainable use of Earth’s ecosystems. However, broad guidance alone cannot inform how conservation actions will lead to desired socioecological outcomes. Here we develop a framework for translating a global-scale ToC into focused, ecosystem-specific ToCs that consider feasibility of actions, as determined by national socioeconomic and political contexts (that is, enabling conditions). We used coastal wetlands as a case study for developing the framework and identified six distinct multinational profiles of enabling conditions (‘enabling profiles’) for their conservation. For countries belonging to profiles with high internal capacity to enable conservation, we described plausible ToCs that involved strengthening policy and regulation. Alternatively, for profiles with low internal enabling capacity, plausible ToCs typically required formalizing community-led conservation. Our ‘enabling profile’ framework can be applied to other ecosystems to help operationalize the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and meet sustainable development goals.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01245-y

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