Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Ben Stewart-Koster (), Stuart E. Bunn (), Pamela Green, Christopher Ndehedehe, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie L. Ebi, Christopher Gordon, Joyeeta Gupta, Syezlin Hasan, Lisa Jacobson, Steven J. Lade, Diana Liverman, Sina Loriani, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Dahe Qin, Crelis Rammelt, Juan C. Rocha, Johan Rockström, Peter H. Verburg and Caroline Zimm
Additional contact information
Ben Stewart-Koster: Griffith University
Stuart E. Bunn: Griffith University
Pamela Green: City University of New York
Christopher Ndehedehe: Griffith University
Lauren S. Andersen: Member of the Leibniz Association
David I. Armstrong McKay: University of Exeter
Xuemei Bai: Australian National University
Fabrice DeClerck: Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT
Kristie L. Ebi: University of Washington
Christopher Gordon: University of Ghana
Joyeeta Gupta: University of Amsterdam
Syezlin Hasan: Griffith University
Lisa Jacobson: Future Earth Secretariat
Steven J. Lade: Stockholm University
Diana Liverman: University of Arizona
Sina Loriani: Member of the Leibniz Association
Awaz Mohamed: Universität Hamburg
Nebojsa Nakicenovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
David Obura: CORDIO East Africa
Dahe Qin: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Crelis Rammelt: University of Amsterdam
Juan C. Rocha: Stockholm University
Johan Rockström: Member of the Leibniz Association
Peter H. Verburg: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
Caroline Zimm: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 1, 53-63

Abstract: Abstract Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w

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