Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals

Hassan Niazi (), Thomas B. Wild, Sean W. D. Turner, Neal T. Graham, Mohamad Hejazi, Siwa Msangi, Son Kim, Jonathan R. Lamontagne and Mengqi Zhao
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Hassan Niazi: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Thomas B. Wild: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Sean W. D. Turner: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Neal T. Graham: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Mohamad Hejazi: King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Siwa Msangi: United States Department of Agriculture
Son Kim: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jonathan R. Lamontagne: Tufts University
Mengqi Zhao: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 4, 413-422

Abstract: Abstract Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km3 yr−1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. These groundwater-dependent basins will probably face increasing costs of groundwater and food production, suggesting important implications for global agricultural trade and a diminished role for groundwater in meeting global water demands during the twenty-first century.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01306-w

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