Methane emissions from landfills differentially underestimated worldwide

Yao Wang, Mingliang Fang, Ziyang Lou, Hongping He, Yuliang Guo, Xiaoqing Pi, Yijie Wang, Ke Yin () and Xunchang Fei ()
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Yao Wang: Nanyang Technological University
Mingliang Fang: Fudan University
Ziyang Lou: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Hongping He: College of Chemistry and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen University
Yuliang Guo: Nanyang Technological University
Xiaoqing Pi: Nanyang Technological University
Yijie Wang: Nanyang Technological University
Ke Yin: Nanjing Forestry University
Xunchang Fei: Nanyang Technological University

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 4, 496-507

Abstract: Abstract Landfill methane (CH4) emissions account for ~10% of all anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally, amounting to ~50 Tg per year. The current emission inventories utilize a first-order decay model as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In contrast to recent top-down atmospheric inversion results, the mainstream bottom-up inventories exhibit significant biases, largely stemming from the inaccuracy in the a priori decay constant (k), an essential rate-controlling parameter in the model. We improve the k estimation method by incorporating compositional- and environmental-specific corrections, which are readily integrated into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s model. The accuracy of CH4 emission predictions is significantly improved by using the corrected k values, which are benchmarked against the atmospheric inversion results. We extend the emission estimations to landfills worldwide and reveal up to 200% underestimations for individual landfills. Our findings highlight the importance of prioritizing landfill CH4 emission monitoring and reduction as one of the most cost-effective mitigation options to achieve current climate goals.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01307-9

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