Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields

Jichong Han, Zhao Zhang (), Jialu Xu, Yi Chen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juan Cao, Yuchuan Luo, Fei Cheng, Huimin Zhuang, Huaqing Wu, Qinghang Mei, Jie Song and Fulu Tao ()
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Jichong Han: Beijing Normal University
Zhao Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Jialu Xu: Beijing Normal University
Yi Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jonas Jägermeyr: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Juan Cao: Beijing Normal University
Yuchuan Luo: Southwest University
Fei Cheng: Beijing Normal University
Huimin Zhuang: Beijing Normal University
Huaqing Wu: Beijing Normal University
Qinghang Mei: Beijing Normal University
Jie Song: Beijing Normal University
Fulu Tao: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 8, 994-1006

Abstract: Abstract Flood hazards pose a significant threat to agricultural production. Agricultural adaptations tend to be prevalent and systematic in high-frequency flood (HFF) areas but neglected in low-frequency flood (LFF) areas. Here, using satellite imagery, we map global spatial distributions of LFF and HFF at 250 m resolution for 3,427 flood events between 2000 and 2021. We show that LFF affected a larger proportion of cropland area (4.7%) than HFF (1.2%), and HFF occurred in smaller regions with less intensity. Cropland expansion between 2000 and 2019 increased the area affected by LFF (3.1 × 104 km2) more than that affected by HFF (1.3 × 104 km2). Moreover, the mean yield losses of wheat and rice from LFF were greater than those from HFF, owing to the higher precipitation anomalies, soil moisture anomalies and greater crop flooding during their growing seasons. Our findings highlight the urgency of this issue and identify priority areas to prevent these neglected low-frequency but high-impact floods, providing valuable information for developing flood-adapted policy.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01375-x

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