Impacts of global trade on cropland soil-phosphorus depletion and food security

Kunyu Niu, Mengyu Li, Manfred Lenzen, Thomas Wiedmann, Xudong Han, Shuqin Jin, Arunima Malik () and Baojing Gu ()
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Kunyu Niu: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Mengyu Li: University of Sydney
Manfred Lenzen: University of Sydney
Thomas Wiedmann: UNSW
Xudong Han: UNSW
Shuqin Jin: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China
Arunima Malik: University of Sydney
Baojing Gu: Zhejiang University

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 9, 1128-1140

Abstract: Abstract Globalization intensifies the demand for agricultural products from specific regions, resulting in intensive farming practices that can exacerbate local cropland soil phosphorus (P) depletion, thereby undermining long-term food security. By integrating global data on international trade and soil-P reserves and deficits from 1970 to 2017, we demonstrate that the contribution of trade to global soil-P deficits increased from 7% in 1970 to 18% in 2017, with 54% of this impact driven by non-food consumption. Over these 48 years, developing regions exported a net of 5.8 Mt P through agricultural trade, resulting in a net increase of 13 Mt soil-P deficits. These deficits are primarily concentrated in regions with low soil-P reserves, such as sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, thereby heightening the risks of soil-P depletion in these areas and amplifying long-term concerns about food security. This insight underscores the imperative for a broader perspective on food security—prioritizing national soil productivity rather than merely boosting the availability of food in the global market when shaping global trade policies.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01385-9

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