A Profitable Strategy in the Pelota Betting Market

Loreto Llorente ()
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Loreto Llorente: Departamento de Economía-UPNA, https://www.unavarra.es/departamento-economia

Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra from Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra

Abstract: In Pelota matches, games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, bets on the winner are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. In this paper after the description of the way bets are made in the market we analyze what we call the general odds rule. Analyzing the way odds are fixed in the market we find that assuming equal return on bets there are biases in the market. Moreover, we find profitable betting strategies even taking commissions into account.

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Date: 2006
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