A fiscal outlook for Poland: Update 2014

Janusz Jabłonowski and Christoph Müller

No 187, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including the transfer of 2nd pillar pension obligations to the general government in 2014. Furthermore, we extend our previous computations (Jablonowski et al., 2011) by using data from household budget surveys as well as large pension contributors’ and tax payers’ databases. Our results show that the pension reforms enacted since 2011 improve the longterm stability of public finances. A risk for fiscal sustainability represents, however, the public health care system which may be severely challenged by the ageing process and a continuing excess cost growth. We assess a number of health reforms including co-payments and a shift to tax financing which have the potential to stabilize the public health care system.

Keywords: Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal policy; Poland; Pension reform; Public health care (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H3 H50 H55 H60 H68 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:187

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