Immigration (from Ukraine) and labour market in Poland – evidence from Bayesian VAR models

Lukasz Postek and Małgorzata Walerych
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Małgorzata Walerych: Narodowy Bank Polski

No 373, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest.

Keywords: immigration; Bayesian VAR; labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E32 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 54
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int, nep-lab, nep-mig and nep-tra
Note: The authors would like to thank Paweł Kopiec, Jacek Kotłowski, Błażej Kowalski, Wojciech Łątkowski, Serhiy Stepanchuk, Karol Szafranek, Robert Wyszyński and the participants to the 8th Joint NBU-NBP 2024 Annual Research Conference and internal seminar at NBP for useful suggestions and comments. The authors are also grateful to an anonymous referee for the valuable comments and suggestions. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Narodowy Bank Polski.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373

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