Pandemic fiscal support measures and credit to non-financial corporations in Poland. Evidence from micro-level data

Krzysztof Gajewski and Mariusz Kapuściński
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Krzysztof Gajewski: Narodowy Bank Polski

No 374, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: In this study we estimate the effects of fiscal measures in response to the COVID19 pandemic on credit to non-financial corporations in Poland. We consider the consequences for both credit quantity and quality. To this end, we match bankfirm-level data on lending with data on individual state aid cases. Then, we apply local projections and duration models. For the quantity of credit, we find the consequences of the fiscal measures to depend on their form, with a positive, temporary effect of guarantees and a negative, persistent effect of measures classified as preferential loans and repayable advances. With the latter form of support dominating, the measures appear to have contributed somewhat to the post-pandemic weakness in credit to non-financial corporations in Poland. However, while relevant, the fiscal pandemic support measures appear not to be the dominant force behind the weak lending. The results on the effects on credit quality are less clear, with some evidence consistent with all the considered measures having a positive (moderating) impact on the share of impaired loans.

Keywords: COVID-19; fiscal support; lending; NPL; micro-data; granular data; local projections; survival analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G18 G21 H32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2025
Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors. We would like to thank Michał Adam, Piotr Bańbuła, Dorota Ścibisz, Ewa Wróbel, the participants of the seminar at the Financial Stability Department of NBP and the Referee for their useful comments. Any errors are our own.
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