Supply-side Impact of Trade Liberalization and Disruption

Kenichi Kawasaki
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Kenichi Kawasaki: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan

No 24-04, GRIPS Discussion Papers from National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Abstract: Intracontinental trade intensity and concentration are observed worldwide. It has been suggested that supply chain resilience to unexpected shocks be strengthened by enhancing international diversification of input sources. The major objective of this paper is to try to investigate the impact of trade liberalization and disruption on trade and supply chains by means of simulation studies using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, with the introduction of a few trade indicators. World import deviation from the expected least distorted state of trade would be reduced by trade liberalization but expanded by trade disruption, though to a small extent. That said, those impacts on import concentrations and deviations would be mixed at the regional levels. Regional tariff removals would create more import deviations, depending on the economy. The impact of trade disruption on import deviations would vary by economy. It is advised that supply chain resilience be considered by economy and by sector. Meanwhile, the development of analytical methodologies for study of the impact of policy measures on supply chains would be seen as issues for further study.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific; supply chain; Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); US tariff hikes; trade sanctions on Russia; mining price increases; computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2024-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int and nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ngi:dpaper:24-04

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