Measuring the Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the Philippines Using a CGE Model

Lary Nel B. Abao (), Deborah Kim Sy (), Nobuhiro Hosoe () and Yuko Akune ()
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Lary Nel B. Abao: Department of Agriculture-National Livestock Program, Quezon City, Philippines
Nobuhiro Hosoe: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Yuko Akune: Nihon University - College of Bioresource Science, Kanagawa, Japan

No 25-04, GRIPS Discussion Papers from National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Abstract: We study the impact and drivers of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Philippines in 2017, using a static computable general equilibrium model. Observed data that indicate the market impact of the HPAI are partial; profit and welfare impacts have not been quantified yet. We investigate two major drivers of productivity declines by culling and death of birds and supply disruptions in the poultry sector and consumer avoidance behavior in meat consumption behind the observed market price drop of 7%. We estimate that possible combinations of productivity declines and consumer avoidance were 1–10% and 60–90% and that the HPAI inflicted a welfare loss of 25–56 billion PHP (500 million–1.12 billion USD) and a profit loss of 15–23 billion PHP (295–467 million USD).

Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2025-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-sea
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