INCREASING PENSION AGE IN RUSSIA: 2019 RESULTS. EXAMPLE OF TYUMEN REGION

Marina Giltman, Liubov Antosik, Oksana Tokareva and Natalia Obukhovich

Public administration issues, 2021, issue 2, 154-182

Abstract: The article examines the impact of raising the retirement age in Russia on the economic activity of older workers in 2019, the starting year of the transition period for raising the retirement age, which preceded the COVID-19 pandemic. The probabilities of employment, unemployment and inactivity of persons of pre-retirement age was estimated using a multinomial logit analysis. Multinomial logit analysis was based on microdata from the Rosstat Labor Force Survey for 2017-2019. The models included the socio-demographic characteristics of the population of the several age groups. The obtained estimates show a small, but numerically noticeable increase in the probability of employment and a decrease in the chances of leaving the labor force for persons of pre-retirement age in 2019 compared to 2017 and 2018. These results were supplemented by an analysis of microdata on the registered unemployed of the Tyumen region for 2019, provided to the authors by the Department of Labor and Employment of the Tyumen Region. The results of the study show that higher education is the most important factor in the competitiveness in the labor market for persons of pre-retirement age. Despite all the instruments of the state regulation implemented in 2019 which tend to support the employment in the older age groups, individual characteristics of pre-retirees made greater impact on their competitiveness on the labor market. Thus, implications for the policy could be to focus efforts on supporting professional education and training for adults.

Keywords: labor market; unemployment; registered unemployment; unemployment benefits; retirement age; pre-retirees; economic activity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:vgmu00:2021:i:2:p:154-182

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