Oil supercycle and fiscal policy

E. Gurvich (), I. Belyakov () and I. Prilepskiy ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, issue 9

Abstract: Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to several decades. Implications for fiscal policy from oil price swings are considered. We demonstrate in particular that these swings ensure high returns on the oil fund operations due to substantial gap between exchange rates at the periods of fund replenishment and withdrawal. This makes the oil Reserve fund mechanism by far more profitable for the government than other potential investment tools.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2015:id:112

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2015-9-5-30

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