The dynamics of tax revenues and the economic cycle in the Russian Federation

S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev (), S. G. Belev () and E. O. Matveev ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2025, issue 11

Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the cyclical behavior of tax revenues of the Russian Federation budget system. Such estimates are necessary to analyze its ability to effectively smooth the economic cycle and to ensure the stability of public expenditures financing. We identified the cyclical component of the main types of taxes with the help of the Hodrick—Prescott filter. Cyclical components of tax revenues were used to calculate correlations with the cyclical component of GDP. The results show that the cyclical component of tax revenues includes corporate income tax, value-added tax on goods imported, and oil and gas revenues. The structural part includes personal income tax, value-added tax on goods sold in the Russian Federation, and excise taxes. According to the VAR modeling, taxes of the cyclical part of budget revenues cannot be characterized as automatic stabilizers.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/viewFile/5515/2793 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2025:id:5515

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-5-20

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Voprosy Ekonomiki from NP Voprosy Ekonomiki
Bibliographic data for series maintained by NEICON ().