Elected Neighbors and the Supply of Future Politicians

Julio Cáceres-Delpiano and Matilde Pinto Machado

No 2026-10, Discussion Papers from Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)

Abstract: Using precise data on the residences of municipal election candidates in Chile and regression- discontinuity design based on close elections, we estimate the causal effect of electing a candidate on the emergence of future candidacies within a very narrow radius of their home. We find that the election of a neighbor increases the emergence of candidates from the same neighborhood. We then examine whether these candidacies translate into electoral success and generate persistence in the geographic composition of councils. We find evidence of such persistence, driven by incumbent re-election and concentrated in neighborhoods where elected candidates are pivotal in the council or not politically aligned with the mayor. These dynamics imply that local political processes may perpetuate, rather than alleviate, spatial inequalities within municipalities.

Date: 2026
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