Secularization Backlash: A Tale of Two Coups

Sultan Mehmood, Rinchan Ali Mirza and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

No 2026-16, Discussion Papers from Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)

Abstract: This paper examines how past ideological state-building constrains future reform. In Pakistan, General Zia’s regime (1977–1988) embedded religious identity into law, education, and political life. Two decades later, General Musharraf (1999–2008) sought to reverse course by pursuing a competing vision of national renewal. Leveraging a newly assembled district-level panel spanning half a century and an array of difference- in-differences strategies, we show that liberalizing reforms under Musharraf triggered a severe backlash in districts previously Islamized by Zia’s policies, reflected in heightened political violence and rising electoral support for Islamist parties. Evidence supports a mechanism In which Zia’s Islamization increased exposure to religious extremism among school-age cohorts. Relative to earlier cohorts, these cohorts were more likely to attend madrasas (religious seminaries) teaching more hard line religious doctrine. The districts that later display backlash also exhibit higher early marriage rates among girls, slower gains in female literacy, and greater Qur’an readership, consistent with a reorientation toward more conservative social and political preferences. These findings suggest that when states fuse Islamist ideology with governance, they create enduring constraints on future policy change. Past ideological investments can thus limit the effectiveness of later efforts at secularization or reform.

Date: 2026
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