French inflation forecasts

F. Hild
Additional contact information
F. Hild: Insee

Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers from Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques

Abstract: In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of three months, six months and one year. A different equation is associated to each horizon. This approach has the advantage of modeling directly the variable of interest at the desired horizon without resorting to assumed forecast paths of the exogeneous variables outside the sampling period: given the history at time t, one forecasts the value of inflation at time t+h. The study of historical properties of those equations with real-time datatsets when possible shows that the forecast errors, for the last four years, are about 0.25 point for the 3-month and the 6-month horizon and about 0.5 point for the 12-month horizon.

Keywords: Inflation; short-term forecast; cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p06zqnvs/f1.pdf Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2002-12 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nse:doctra:g2002-12

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers from Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by INSEE ().