THE WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION – STRUCTURAL

Andrei Rădulescu ()
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Andrei Rădulescu: Department of International Economic Analysis, Institute for World Economy 13, 13 September Avenue, Bucharest

Global Economic Observer, 2025, vol. 13, issue 1, 6-12

Abstract: The annual pace of industrial production has shown a downward trend in the recent quarters, in the context of the fragmentation caused by the intensification of the geopolitical tensions following the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine. Furthermore, the potential growth pace of this important coincident indicator for world economic activity is at very low level at present, at least compared to the developments in the cycle prior to the outbreak of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). In this paper we apply standard econometric tools and use the databases of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Federal Reserve (FED), and Bloomberg in order to assess the relation between the evolution of the world industrial production and several fundamental indicators, including the volume of world trade, the long-term real interest rate, and the volatility in the financial markets during the period January 2001 – January 2025. The econometric estimates confirm the direct relation between the evolution of industrial production and the dynamics of world trade. On the other hand, an inverse relationship is observed between the evolution of the industrial production and the dynamics of the long-term real interest rate and the volatility in the financial markets.

Keywords: world industry; world trade; real interest rates; volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F00 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ntu:ntugeo:vol13-iss1-6-12

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